Forecast Discussion 9/28

The Atlantic remains quiet, and at this point it seems that we can just about close the book on the GRIP Dry Run Atlantic. In the Pacific, NHC still has no potential for development, but models continue to suggest that development is possible.

IR of the Atlantic shows little convection except that associated with a cold low and associated frontal features. Tropical waves still exist as ex TD-8 and PG31, and at least some convection is present with 31, but no development is anticipated with either one. Ex TD-8 remains in a hostile shear environment, and any diurnal convection has been completely sheared off. PG-31 is in a better environment, but it is not organized and appears to be very weak. No models develop anything in the Atlantic within the next 72 hours.

In the Pacific, convection with ex-90E has decreased over the past few days, and development by Wednesday appears unlikely. The global models continue to develop the eastern area of thunderstorms discussed yesterday, but again, development by Wednesday seems fairly unlikely. Global models also appear to have a bias towards development in this region, so the fact that all 3 models develop a system here could be a function of such a bias, and may not represent an accurate consensus forecast.