Forecast Discussion 9/30

Atlantic remains quiet. Only thing worth noting is that GFS Marsupial tracking of PG-31 shows strengthening in the next few days. Ironically, the other two models don't even track PG-31 beyond 12 hours. Regardless it is not a target since today is the last day of the field campaign

In the Pacific, 91E (located at 115W 20N, moving 10kts) has developed a coherent closed circulation based on QuickSCAT imagery, however most of the barbs around the center are rain contaminated. It continues to be located in a region of low shear and high SSTs, although it is moving towards a more hostile environment of cooler SSTs and higher shear. It appears to be slowing down, as the models suggested it would, although the consensus for track beyond 24 hours from now continues to be very poor, although more models than not tend to turn it towards the north and east in the 72+ hour range. Models are not particularly high on the intensity forecasts, and only a few models bring it to TS strength in about 36 hours. Even those bring it back to TD or lower within 24 hours after TS development. A consensus forecast would be the development of a depression in terms of intensity, but not a tropical storm. That said, with conditions remaining favorable for development and a circulation developing, I would not be suprised to see a TS in the East Pac within the next 24 hours