The Atlantic remains quiet within the range of GRIP.  A cold front is moving south and appears to be associated with the only convection over the ocean except for now TD 8.  Some convection is also associated with a tropical wave traveling along the ITCZ north of Venezuela, but it continues to be disorganized.  Much of the Atlantic is under high shear, particularly along the front, which is discouraging any convective development.

As of 1500 UTC, TD 8 was located at 18W 35N, moving NW at 12 kts, with a minimum central pressure of 1008mb.  The NHC forecast calls for it to continue moving to the NW, and to weaken before reaching TS strength.  The shear ahead of TD 8 has decreased slightly, although it is still moving into an environment unfavorable for development.  SSTs are barely above 26 C, and shear is > 20kts.  Steering winds suggest that it will continue moving generally WNW or NW, which will keep it in an unfavorable environment.  Models suggest that strengthening is possible in the 96+ hour range, but the model consensus track is a NW path for the next 72 hours followed by a turn to N and eventually NE, suggesting that even if it does strengthen in the future, it will likely remain out of range of GRIP.

PG31 has emerged off the coast of Africa, and but doesn’t show much potential.  It still seems unlikely that it will reach GRIP range by the end of September.  The GFS and NOGAPS were unavailable at the time of this discussion, but the UKMET keeps the system around for 84 hours while gradually killing it off as it moves generally W and WNW.

In the Pacific, a number of systems have a low probability for development.  Convection along the ITCZ has continued to fire up in association with a couple lows.  One in particular appears to be organizing, and could develop into a TD shortly.  Models suggest that this system could develop into a TS within the next 36 hours, and could eventually reach hurricane strength.  An additional area of thunderstorms is located off the coast of Mexico and is moving to the West.  Some global models suggest this could develop into a low beyond 72 hours.