Forecast Discussion 9/25

The Atlantic where we are concerned remains fairly quiet in terms of tropical activity.  However, PG-29 is begining to look promising and the NHC has issued a moderate potential for development.  In the Pacific, Nora has disapated completely, while an area with a low potential for development persists to the southeast.


PG-29 is now 99L as NHC has issued an invest for it.  It is currently located at 31W 16N and is moving WNW.  A closed circulation center is evident from QuickSCAT, and is apparant on visible imagery as well.The convection appears to be fairly well organized, however this is likely causing it to move farther north. It currently is in a relatively favorable environment for development, but to the north and west there is fairly high shear.  Additionally, SST are not particularly warm (though they are warm enough for development), and OHC is low as well.  So it appears as though the only window for 99L to develop is in the next 24 hours before it moves into the high shear.  Not even the CMC is really developing this system into anything, and the 3 Marsupial Tracking models on the Montgomery site all kill it roughly within the next 48 hours.

The upper level low/lower level trough located east of Florida is also not predicted by any of the models to strengthen at all.  Like 99L, even the CMC kills off any kind of surface low very quickly.  Several models never even develop a surface low. 

In the Pacific, Nora has disapated, but its remains are located at around 122W 17N.  There is almost no convection associated with Nora at this point and it is moving into a region of cold SSTs and high shear, so redevelopment is not expected. 

Additionally, a circulation near 135W 10N continues to fire up convection in the Pacific, but the models do not appear to be developing it, and instead develop another system to its east.